| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27920 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27920 |
| Anxiety or Pain? The Impact of Tariffs and Uncertainty on Chinese Firms in the Trade War | |
| Felipe Benguria; Jaerim Choi; Deborah L. Swenson; Mingzhi Xu | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-10-12 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The unexpected outbreak of the U.S.-China trade war led to dramatic increases in the import and export tariffs confronting Chinese firms. Due to firm-level differences in trade engagement, customs trade data combined with tariff changes allow us to measure firm-level exposure to the trade war. Further, by adopting a new textual analysis approach to listed firms' annual reports, we develop trade policy uncertainty (TPU) measures that vary over firms and time. Our difference-in-differences examination of these firm-level data reveals that trade war increases in U.S. tariffs and Chinese retaliatory tariffs both raised Chinese firms’ TPU. The impact of tariffs on uncertainty is heterogeneous, and is most pronounced for smaller and less capital-intensive firms. This effect is also smaller for Chinese exporters that were more diversified in terms of partner countries. In the second stage of our analysis we explore and document the negative connection between Chinese firm-level increases in TPU and subsequent firm performance. Our estimates indicate that Chinese firms hit by a one standard deviation increase in TPU during the trade war reduced firm-level investment, R&D expenditures, and profits by 1.4, 2.7, and 8.9 percent, respectively. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; International Economics ; Trade ; Globalization and International Relations |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27920 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585594 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Felipe Benguria,Jaerim Choi,Deborah L. Swenson,et al. Anxiety or Pain? The Impact of Tariffs and Uncertainty on Chinese Firms in the Trade War. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27920.pdf（842KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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