| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27930 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27930 |
| Neglected No More: Housing Markets, Mortgage Lending, and Sea Level Rise | |
| Benjamin J. Keys; Philip Mulder | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-10-12 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this paper, we explore dynamic changes in the capitalization of sea level rise (SLR) risk in housing and mortgage markets. Our results suggest a disconnect in coastal Florida real estate: From 2013-2018, home sales volumes in the most-SLR-exposed communities declined 16-20% relative to less-SLR-exposed areas, even as their sale prices grew in lockstep. Between 2018-2020, however, relative prices in these at-risk markets finally declined by roughly 5% from their peak. Lender behavior cannot reconcile these patterns, as we show that both all-cash and mortgage-financed purchases have similarly contracted, with little evidence of increases in loan denial or securitization. We propose a demand-side explanation for our findings where prospective buyers have become more pessimistic about climate change risk than prospective sellers. The lead-lag relationship between transaction volumes and prices in SLR-exposed markets is consistent with dynamics at the peak of prior real estate bubbles. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Real Estate |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27930 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585604 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Benjamin J. Keys,Philip Mulder. Neglected No More: Housing Markets, Mortgage Lending, and Sea Level Rise. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27930.pdf（1515KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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