| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27951 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27951 |
| Uncertainty, Wages, and the Business Cycle | |
| Matteo Cacciatore; Federico Ravenna | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-10-19 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We show that limited wage flexibility in economic downturns generates strong and state-dependent amplification of uncertainty shocks. It also explains the cyclical behavior of empirical measures of uncertainty. Central to our analysis is the existence of matching frictions in the labor market and an occasionally binding constraint on downward wage adjustment. The wage constraint enhances the concavity of firms' hiring rule, generating an endogenous profit-risk premium. In turn, uncertainty shocks increase the profit-risk premium when the economy operates close to the wage constraint. This implies that higher uncertainty can severely deepen a recession, although its impact is weaker on average. Non-linear local projections and VAR estimates support the model predictions. Additionally, the variance of the unforecastable component of future economic outcomes always increases at times of low economic activity. Thus, measured uncertainty rises in a recession even in the absence of uncertainty shocks. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27951 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585625 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Matteo Cacciatore,Federico Ravenna. Uncertainty, Wages, and the Business Cycle. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27951.pdf（955KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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