| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27961 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27961 |
| Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty | |
| Scott R. Baker; Aniket Baksy; Nicholas Bloom; Steven J. Davis; Jonathan A. Rodden | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-10-19 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We examine patterns of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) around national elections in 23 countries. Uncertainty shows a clear tendency to rise in the months leading up to elections. Average EPU values are 13% higher in the month of and the month prior to an election than in other months of the same national election cycle, conditional on country effects, time effects, and country-specific time trends. In a closer examination of U.S. data, EPU rises by 28% in the month of presidential elections that are close and polarized, as compared to elections that are neither. This pattern suggests that the 2020 US Presidential Election could see a large rise in economic policy uncertainty. It also suggests larger spikes in uncertainty around future elections in other countries that have experienced rising polarization in recent years. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27961 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585635 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Scott R. Baker,Aniket Baksy,Nicholas Bloom,et al. Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27961.pdf（277KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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