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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w27992
来源IDWorking Paper 27992
The Pandemic Economic Crisis, Precautionary Behavior, and Mobility Constraints: An Application of the Dynamic Disequilibrium Model with Randomness
Joseph E. Stiglitz
发表日期2020-10-26
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要This paper analyzes the economic impact of the pandemic, providing insights into the consequences of alternative policies. Our framework focuses on three key features: (a) Covid-19 is a sectoral shock of unknown depth and duration affecting some sectors and technologies more than others; (b) there are constraints in shifting resources across sectors; and (c) there is a high level of uncertainty about the disease and its economic aftermath, inducing a high level of precautionary behavior by some agents and leading to others facing more severe credit constraints. Because of macroeconomic externalities, precautionary behavior exacerbates the downturn, and even sectors where Covid-19 does not directly affect consumption or production may face unemployment. Multipliers associated with different government expenditure programs differ markedly. The paper describes policies that can mitigate precautionary behavior, leading to reduced unemployment. Greater wage flexibility may lead to increased unemployment.
The precautionary behavior is the antithesis of equilibrium behavior, suggesting that standard equilibrium approaches may not provide the appropriate framework for analyzing the pandemic: individuals know that they don’t know the future, that existing and newly made contracts and plans may be broken, and that they need to be able to respond to these unknowable contingencies.
主题Other ; History of Economic Thought ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Fiscal Policy ; Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions ; Labor Economics ; Labor Supply and Demand ; COVID-19
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w27992
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585665
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Joseph E. Stiglitz. The Pandemic Economic Crisis, Precautionary Behavior, and Mobility Constraints: An Application of the Dynamic Disequilibrium Model with Randomness. 2020.
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