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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w27993
来源IDWorking Paper 27993
The Risk of Narrow, Disputable Results in the U.S. Electoral College: 1836-2020
Michael Geruso; Dean Spears
发表日期2020-10-26
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要Close elections are important for many reasons, including that consequent election disputes can weaken democratic legitimacy and risk political violence. We show that, in theoretical principle, either a popular vote or a two-stage electoral system, such as the US Electoral College (EC), could generate closer outcomes in expectation. We then quantify the probability of close outcomes in US presidential races with novel applications of empirical election models spanning all of US voting history. We show that razor-thin margins are, in fact, very likely under the EC. We then establish that the EC causes this closeness: It would not occur under any plausibly comparable popular vote system. The tendency of the EC to generate close elections is true today, throughout US presidential voting history, and for most likely configurations of future US politics.
主题Public Economics ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Other ; Law and Economics
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w27993
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585666
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Michael Geruso,Dean Spears. The Risk of Narrow, Disputable Results in the U.S. Electoral College: 1836-2020. 2020.
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