| 来源类型 | Working Paper
|
| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| DOI | 10.3386/w27993
|
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27993
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| The Risk of Narrow, Disputable Results in the U.S. Electoral College: 1836-2020 |
| Michael Geruso; Dean Spears
|
| 发表日期 | 2020-10-26
|
| 出版年 | 2020
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | Close elections are important for many reasons, including that consequent election disputes can weaken democratic legitimacy and risk political violence. We show that, in theoretical principle, either a popular vote or a two-stage electoral system, such as the US Electoral College (EC), could generate closer outcomes in expectation. We then quantify the probability of close outcomes in US presidential races with novel applications of empirical election models spanning all of US voting history. We show that razor-thin margins are, in fact, very likely under the EC. We then establish that the EC causes this closeness: It would not occur under any plausibly comparable popular vote system. The tendency of the EC to generate close elections is true today, throughout US presidential voting history, and for most likely configurations of future US politics. |
| 主题 | Public Economics
; Labor Economics
; Demography and Aging
; Other
; Law and Economics
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27993
|
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
|
| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585666
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Michael Geruso,Dean Spears. The Risk of Narrow, Disputable Results in the U.S. Electoral College: 1836-2020. 2020.
|
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文件名：
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w27993.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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