| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28005 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28005 |
| The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States | |
| Jonathon Hazell; Juan Herreño; Emi Nakamura; Jón Steinsson | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-10-26 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indexes for non-tradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and was small even during the early 1980s. We estimate only a modest decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since the 1980s. We use a multi-region model to infer the slope of the aggregate Phillips curve from our regional estimates. Applying our estimates to recent unemployment dynamics yields essentially no missing disinflation or missing reinflation over the past few business cycles. Our results imply that the sharp drop in core inflation in the early 1980s was mostly due to shifting expectations about long-run monetary policy as opposed to a steep Phillips curve, and the greater stability of inflation since the 1990s is mostly due to long-run inflationary expectations becoming more firmly anchored. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28005 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585678 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jonathon Hazell,Juan Herreño,Emi Nakamura,et al. The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28005.pdf（533KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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