| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28035 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28035 |
| Russian Holidays Predict Troll Activity 2015-2017 | |
| Douglas Almond; Xinming Du; Alana Vogel | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-11-02 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | While international election interference is not new, Russia is credited with “industrializing” trolling on English-language social media platforms. In October 2018, Twitter retrospectively identified 2.9 million English-language tweets as covertly written by trolls from Russia's Internet Research Agency. Most active 2015-2017, these Russian trolls generally supported the Trump campaign (Senate Intelligence Committee, 2019) and researchers have traced how this content disseminated across Twitter. Here, we take a different tack and seek exogenous drivers of Russian troll activity. We find that trolling fell 35% on Russian holidays and to a lesser extent, when temperatures were cold in St. Petersburg. More recent trolls released by Twitter do not show any systematic relationship to holidays and temperature, although substantially fewer of these that have been made public to date. Our finding for the pre-2018 interference period may furnish a natural experiment for evaluating the causal effect of Russian trolling on indirectly-affected outcomes and political behaviors — outcomes that are less traceable to troll content and potentially more important to policymakers than the direct dissemination activities previously studied. As a case in point, we describe suggestive evidence that Russian holidays impacted daily trading prices in 2016 election betting markets. |
| 主题 | Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues ; Labor Economics ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Labor Relations |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28035 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585708 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Douglas Almond,Xinming Du,Alana Vogel. Russian Holidays Predict Troll Activity 2015-2017. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28035.pdf（334KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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