| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28048 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28048 |
| The Geopolitics of International Trade in Southeast Asia | |
| Kerem Coşar; Benjamin D. Thomas | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-11-09 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Motivated by the historically tense geopolitical situation in Southeast Asia, we simulate the potential closure of key maritime waterways in the region to predict the impact on trade and welfare. We generate initial (unobstructed) and counterfactual (rerouted) least-cost maritime paths between trading countries, and use the distances of these routes in a workhorse model of international trade to estimate welfare effects. We find heterogeneous and economically significant reductions in real GDP, and show the magnitude of welfare loss is directly correlated with military spending as a proportion of GDP, suggesting nations may be responding to economic security threats posed by such potential conflicts. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Trade ; Globalization and International Relations |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28048 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585721 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kerem Coşar,Benjamin D. Thomas. The Geopolitics of International Trade in Southeast Asia. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28048.pdf（1210KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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