| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28053 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28053 |
| Brexit Uncertainty and its (Dis)Service Effects | |
| Saad Ahmad; Nuno Limão; Sarah Oliver; Serge Shikher | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-11-09 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the industry level from 2016Q1 to 2018Q4. By exploiting the variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with a new trade policy risk measure across service industries we identify a significant negative impact of the threat of Brexit on trade values and participation. The increased probability of Brexit in this period lowered services exports by at least 20 log points. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Trade ; Industrial Organization ; Industry Studies |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28053 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585726 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Saad Ahmad,Nuno Limão,Sarah Oliver,et al. Brexit Uncertainty and its (Dis)Service Effects. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28053.pdf（642KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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