| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28108 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28108 |
| Will the Secular Decline In Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19? | |
| Ethan Ilzetzki; Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth S. Rogoff | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-11-23 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Over the 21st century, and especially since 2014, global exchange rate volatility has been trending downwards, notably among the core G3 currencies (dollar, euro and the yen), and to some extent the G4 (including China). This stability continued through the Covid-19 recession to date: unusual, as exchange volatility generally rises in US recessions. Compared to measures of stock price volatility, exchange rate volatility rivals the lows reached in the heyday of Bretton Woods I. This paper argues that the core driver is convergence in monetary policy, reflected in a sharp-reduction of inflation and short- and especially long-term interest rate differentials. This unprecedented stability, which partially extends to emerging markets, is strongly reinforced by expectations that the zero bound will be significantly binding for advanced economies for years to come. We consider various hypotheses and suggest that the shutdown of monetary volatility is the leading explanation. The concluding part of the paper cautions that systemic economic crises often produce major turning points, so a collapse of the Extended Bretton Woods II regime cannot be ruled out. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy ; International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics ; History ; Financial History ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28108 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585782 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ethan Ilzetzki,Carmen M. Reinhart,Kenneth S. Rogoff. Will the Secular Decline In Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28108.pdf（410KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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