| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28163 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28163 |
| Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World | |
| Bruno Conte; Klaus Desmet; Dávid Krisztián Nagy; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-12-07 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper quantitatively assesses the world's changing economic geography and sectoral specialization due to global warming. It proposes a two-sector dynamic spatial growth model that incorporates the relation between economic activity, carbon emissions, and temperature. The model is taken to the data at the 1° by 1° resolution for the entire world. Over a 200-year horizon, rising temperatures consistent with emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 push people and economic activity northwards to Siberia, Canada, and Scandinavia. Compared to a world without climate change, clusters of agricultural specialization shift from Central Africa, Brazil, and India's Ganges Valley, to Central Asia, parts of China and northern Canada. Equatorial latitudes that lose agriculture specialize more in non-agriculture but, due to their persistently low productivity, lose population. By the year 2200, predicted losses in real GDP and utility are 6% and 15%, respectively. Higher trade costs make adaptation through changes in sectoral specialization more costly, leading to less geographic concentration in agriculture and larger climate-induced migration. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Trade ; Development and Growth ; Development ; Growth and Productivity ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Regional Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28163 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585837 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bruno Conte,Klaus Desmet,Dávid Krisztián Nagy,et al. Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28163.pdf（1581KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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