| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28195 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28195 |
| Do Enlarged Fiscal Deficits Cause Inflation: The Historical Record | |
| Michael D. Bordo; Mickey D. Levy | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-12-14 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this paper we survey the historical record for over two centuries on the connection between expansionary fiscal policy and inflation. As a backdrop, we briefly lay out several theoretical approaches to the effects of fiscal deficits on inflation: the earlier Keynesian and monetarist approaches; and modern approaches incorporating expectations and forward looking behavior: unpleasant monetarist arithmetic and the fiscal theory of the price level. We find that the relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation generally holds in wartime when fiscally stressed governments resorted to the inflation tax. There were two peacetime episodes in the early twentieth century when bond financed fiscal deficits that were unbacked by future taxes seem to have greatly contributed to inflation: France in the 1920s and the recovery from the Great Recession in the 1930s in the U.S. In the post-World War II era a detailed examination of the Great Inflation in the 1960s and 1970s in the U.S. and the U.K. suggests that fiscal influences on monetary policy was a key factor. Finally we contrast the experience of the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, when both expansionary fiscal and monetary policy did not lead to rising inflation, with the recent pandemic, which may involve the risks of fiscal dominance and future inflation. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy ; History ; Other History ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28195 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585869 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael D. Bordo,Mickey D. Levy. Do Enlarged Fiscal Deficits Cause Inflation: The Historical Record. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28195.pdf（685KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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