| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28228 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28228 |
| Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections | |
| Francis X. Diebold; Glenn D. Rudebusch | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-12-21 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model indicates that overall sea ice coverage is declining at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon emissions. Our long-range statistical projections also deliver probability assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. These results indicate almost a 60 percent chance of an effectively ice-free Arctic Ocean sometime during the 2030s—much earlier than the average projection from the global climate models. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28228 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585902 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch. Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28228.pdf（5174KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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