| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28281 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28281 |
| Macroeconomic Expectations and Credit Card Spending | |
| Misha Galashin; Martin Kanz; Ricardo Perez-Truglia | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-12-28 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | How do macroeconomic expectations affect consumer decisions? We examine this question using an experiment with 2,872 credit card customers at a large commercial bank. We provide participants with expert forecasts of inflation and the nominal exchange rate and measure the consumption response to this information using detailed administrative data on individual credit card transactions. We find that forecasts strongly affect inflation and exchange rate expectations, but do not change spending or self-reported consumption plans as predicted by standard models of intertemporal choice. Results from a supplementary survey experiment suggest that consumers are sophisticated enough to anticipate nominal rigidities that lower their real income and reduce spending on durables for precautionary reasons, counteracting the effects predicted by standard models of intertemporal optimization. The absence of a link between consumer expectations and behavior has potentially important implications for macroeconomic policies such as forward guidance. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Data Collection ; Experimental Design ; Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28281 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585953 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Misha Galashin,Martin Kanz,Ricardo Perez-Truglia. Macroeconomic Expectations and Credit Card Spending. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28281.pdf（737KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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