| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28325 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28325 |
| Promoting Platform Takeoff and Self-Fulfilling Expectations: Field Experimental Evidence | |
| Kevin Boudreau | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-01-11 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The theoretical literature on platforms and network effects predicts that the initial growth and takeoff of a platform crucially depends on the market’s expectations of the future installed base. This paper tests this claim, reporting on a field experiment in which invitations to join a newly launched platform were sent to 16,349 individuals and included randomized statements regarding the future expected installed base (along with disclosures of the current installed base). I find evidence consistent with subjective expectations playing a crucial role in shaping early adoption and platform takeoff. Statements regarding expectations of the future installed base more significantly affected adoption than did disclosures of the current installed base. Statements of larger numbers of expected users caused more adoption than did smaller numbers. Statements of a smaller installed base of users (whether current or expected) led to lower demand than did stating nothing at all. The effect of stating subjective expectations by the platform became insignificant once the current installed base grew larger. The response of adoption to expected numbers of users reveals patterns consistent with the long-theorized chicken-and-egg problem and self-fulfilling expectations. The findings have significant implications for the effective promotion, marketing, and “evangelism” of new platform ventures. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Experimental Design ; Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Market Structure and Distribution ; Industrial Organization ; Market Structure and Firm Performance ; Industry Studies |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28325 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585998 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kevin Boudreau. Promoting Platform Takeoff and Self-Fulfilling Expectations: Field Experimental Evidence. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28325.pdf（631KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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