| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28353 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28353 |
| Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-college Periods: New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations. | |
| Thomas Crossley; Yifan Gong; Todd R. Stinebrickner; Ralph Stinebrickner | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-01-18 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Unique longitudinal probabilistic expectations data from the Berea Panel Study, which cover both the college and early post-college periods, are used to examine young adults’ beliefs about their future incomes. We introduce a new measure of the ex post accuracy of beliefs, and two new approaches to testing whether, ex ante, agents exhibit Rational Expectations. We show that taking into account the additional information about higher moments of individual belief distributions contained in probabilistic expectations data is important for detecting types of violations of Rational Expectations that are not detectable by existing mean-based tests. Beliefs about future income are found to become more accurate as students progress through school and then enter the post-college period. Tests of Rational Expectations almost always reject for the in-school period, but the evidence against Rational Expectations is much weaker in the post-college period. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Labor Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28353 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586024 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thomas Crossley,Yifan Gong,Todd R. Stinebrickner,et al. Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-college Periods: New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations.. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28353.pdf（692KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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