| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28416 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28416 |
| Real Credit Cycles | |
| Pedro Bordalo; Nicola Gennaioli; Andrei Shleifer; Stephen J. Terry | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-02-01 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We incorporate diagnostic expectations into a workhorse neoclassical business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnostic overreaction estimated from US firm forecasts generates economic fragility during good times, countercyclical credit spreads, and boom-bust credit cycles at the firm and aggregate levels. Good times predict future disappointment, spread increases, low bond returns, and investment declines. To generate the size of spread increases observed during 2008-9, the model requires only disappointment of overoptimistic beliefs rather than large negative shocks. Diagnostic expectations offer a realistic, parsimonious way to produce financial reversals in business cycle models. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28416 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586088 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pedro Bordalo,Nicola Gennaioli,Andrei Shleifer,et al. Real Credit Cycles. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28416.pdf（618KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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