| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w28434
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 28434
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| A Parsimonious Behavioral SEIR Model of the 2020 COVID Epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom |
| Andrew Atkeson
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| 发表日期 | 2021-02-08
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| 出版年 | 2021
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | I present a behavioral epidemiological model of the evolution of the COVID epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom over the past 12 months. The model includes the introduction of a new, more contagious variant in the UK in early fall and the US in mid December. The model is behavioral in that activity, and thus transmission, responds endogenously to the daily death rate. I show that with only seasonal variation in the transmission rate and pandemic fatigue modeled as a one-time reduction in the semi-elasticity of the transmission rate to the daily death rate late in the year, the model can reproduce the evolution of daily and cumulative COVID deaths in the both countries from Feb 15, 2020 to the present remarkably well. I find that most of the end-of-year surge in deaths in both the US and the UK was generated by pandemic fatigue and not the new variant of the virus. I then generate fore- casts for the evolution of the epidemic over the next two years with continuing seasonality, pandemic fatigue, and spread of the new variant. |
| 主题 | Econometrics
; Health, Education, and Welfare
; COVID-19
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28434
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586107
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Andrew Atkeson. A Parsimonious Behavioral SEIR Model of the 2020 COVID Epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom. 2021.
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文件名：
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w28434.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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