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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w28445
来源IDWorking Paper 28445
Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections
Ayşegül Şahin; Murat Tasci; Jin Yan
发表日期2021-02-08
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach performed considerably better at the onset of the COVID-19 recession in the spring 2020 in predicting the peak unemployment rate as well as its rapid decline over the year. It presents an alternative scenario analysis for 2021 based on this methodology and argues that the unemployment rate is likely to decline to 5.4 percent by the end of 2021. The predictive power of the methodology comes from its combined use of real-time data with the flow approach.
主题Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Labor Economics ; Unemployment and Immigration ; COVID-19
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w28445
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586118
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GB/T 7714
Ayşegül Şahin,Murat Tasci,Jin Yan. Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections. 2021.
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