| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w28733
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 28733
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| The Growing Importance of Decision-Making on the Job |
| David J. Deming
|
| 发表日期 | 2021-05-03
|
| 出版年 | 2021
|
| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Machines increasingly replace people in routine job tasks. The remaining tasks require workers to make open-ended decisions and to have “soft” skills such as problem-solving, critical thinking and adaptability. This paper documents growing demand for decision-making and explores the consequences for life-cycle earnings. Career earnings growth in the U.S. more than doubled between 1960 and 2017, and the age of peak earnings increased from the late 30s to the mid-50s. I show that a substantial share of this shift is explained by increased employment in decision-intensive occupations, which have longer and more gradual periods of earnings growth. To understand these patterns, I develop a model that nests decision-making in a standard human capital framework. Workers predict the output of uncertain, context-dependent actions. Experience reduces prediction error, improving a worker’s ability to adapt using data from similar decisions they have made in the past. Experience takes longer to accumulate in high variance, non-routine jobs. I test the predictions of the model using data from the three waves of the NLS. Life-cycle wage growth in decision-intensive occupations has increased over time, and it has increased relatively more for highly-skilled workers. |
| 主题 | Health, Education, and Welfare
; Education
; Labor Economics
; Labor Supply and Demand
; Labor Compensation
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28733
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586407
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
David J. Deming. The Growing Importance of Decision-Making on the Job. 2021.
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文件名：
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w28733.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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