| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28933 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28933 |
| Future Paths of Electric Vehicle Adoption in the United States: Predictable Determinants, Obstacles and Opportunities | |
| James E. Archsmith; Erich Muehlegger; David S. Rapson | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-06-21 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper identifies and quantifies major determinants of future electric vehicle (EV) demand in order to inform widely-held aspirations for market growth. Our model compares three channels that will affect EV market share in the United States from 2020-2035: intrinsic (no-subsidy) EV demand growth, net-of-subsidy EV cost declines (e.g. batteries), and government subsidies. Geographic variation in preferences for sedans and light trucks highlights the importance of viable EV alternatives to conventional light trucks; belief in climate change is highly correlated with EV adoption patterns; and the first $500 billion in cumulative nationwide EV subsidies is associated a 7-10 percent increase in EV market share in 2035, an effect that diminishes as subsidies increase. The rate of intrinsic demand growth dwarfs the impact of demand-side subsidies and battery cost declines, highlighting the importance of non-monetary factors (e.g. charging infrastructure, product quality and/or cultural acceptance) on EV demand. |
| 主题 | Public Economics ; Taxation ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Energy ; Environment ; Regional and Urban Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28933 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586607 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | James E. Archsmith,Erich Muehlegger,David S. Rapson. Future Paths of Electric Vehicle Adoption in the United States: Predictable Determinants, Obstacles and Opportunities. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28933.pdf（4010KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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