| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28975 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28975 |
| What Drives Demand for State-Run Lotteries? Evidence and Welfare Implications | |
| Benjamin Lockwood ⓡ; Hunt Allcott ⓡ; Dmitry Taubinsky; ⓡ; Afras Y. Sial | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-06-28 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use natural experiments embedded in state-run lotteries and a new nationally representative survey to provide reduced-form and structural estimates of risk preferences and behavioral biases in lottery demand. We find that sales respond more to the expected value of the jackpot than to price, but are unresponsive to variation in the second prize—a pattern that implies probability weighting but is inconsistent with standard parameterizations. In the survey, we find that lottery spending decreases modestly with income and is strongly associated with measures of innumeracy, poor statistical reasoning, and other proxies for behavioral bias. These bias proxies decline with income and statistically account for 43 percent of lottery purchases, suggesting that at least some of lottery demand is due to behavioral bias, not just anticipatory utility or entertainment value. We use these empirical moments to estimate a model of socially optimal lottery design. In the model, current multi-state lottery designs increase welfare but may harm heavy spenders. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; Behavioral Economics ; Public Economics ; Taxation ; Public Goods ; Subnational Fiscal Issues |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28975 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586649 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Benjamin Lockwood ⓡ,Hunt Allcott ⓡ,Dmitry Taubinsky,et al. What Drives Demand for State-Run Lotteries? Evidence and Welfare Implications. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28975.pdf（1526KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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