| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w28982
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 28982
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| Why Are Some Recoveries Short and Others Long? |
| Edward E. Leamer
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| 发表日期 | 2021-07-05
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| 出版年 | 2021
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Using the recession recovery point equal to the month when private payrolls first exceeded their previous peak level, this paper argues that it was the negative secular trend in manufacturing jobs that was the most important determinant of the length and depth of the last three recessions/recoveries. This negative secular trend changed the layoff/recall pattern of jobs in manufacturing into permanent displacements, a malady that lengthened the recovery periods and that is not the explicit target of either traditional monetary policy or traditional fiscal policy. Using the ideas gathered from an examination of the US two-digit sectoral data for the US overall, attention turns to the recession/recoveries of the 50 US states in the last three national recession periods. Regressions that explain the lengths and depths of the recessions in 50 US states reveal the importance of construction jobs, but the most important predictor was manufacturing jobs: the greater the share of manufacturing jobs prior to the recession, the worse was the recession/recovery. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; Business Cycles
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28982
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586656
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Edward E. Leamer. Why Are Some Recoveries Short and Others Long?. 2021.
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文件名：
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w28982.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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