| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| DOI | 10.3386/w29060
|
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29060
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| Modeling Macroeconomic Variations after Covid-19 |
| Serena Ng
|
| 发表日期 | 2021-07-26
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| 出版年 | 2021
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | The coronavirus is a global event of historical proportions and just a few months changed the time series properties of the data in ways that make many pre-covid forecasting models inadequate. It also creates a new problem for estimation of economic factors and dynamic causal effects because the variations around the outbreak can be interpreted as outliers, as shifts to the distribution of existing shocks, or as addition of new shocks. I take the latter view and use covid indicators as controls to 'de-covid' the data prior to estimation. I find that economic uncertainty remains high at the end of 2020 even though real economic activity has recovered and covid uncertainty has receded. Dynamic responses of variables to shocks in a VAR similar in magnitude and shape to the ones identified before 2020 can be recovered by directly or indirectly modeling covid and treating it as exogenous. These responses to economic shocks are distinctly different from those to a covid shock, and distinguishing between the two types of shocks can be important in macroeconomic modeling post-covid. |
| 主题 | Econometrics
; Estimation Methods
; Macroeconomics
; Business Cycles
; COVID-19
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29060
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586734
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Serena Ng. Modeling Macroeconomic Variations after Covid-19. 2021.
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文件名：
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w29060.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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