| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w29126
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 29126
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| The Past and Future of Economic Growth: A Semi-Endogenous Perspective |
| Charles I. Jones
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| 发表日期 | 2021-08-09
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| 出版年 | 2021
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | The nonrivalry of ideas gives rise to increasing returns, a fact celebrated in Paul Romer's recent Nobel Prize. An implication is that the long-run rate of economic growth is the product of the degree of increasing returns and the growth rate of research effort; this is the essence of semi-endogenous growth theory. This paper interprets past and future growth from a semi-endogenous perspective. For 50+ years, U.S. growth has substantially exceeded its long-run rate because of rising educational attainment, declining misallocation, and rising (global) research intensity, implying that frontier growth could slow markedly in the future. Other forces push in the opposite direction. First is the prospect of "finding new Einsteins": how many talented researchers have we missed historically because of the underdevelopment of China and India and because of barriers that discouraged women inventors? Second is the longer-term prospect that artificial intelligence could augment or even replace people as researchers. Throughout, the paper highlights many opportunities for further research. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; Development and Growth
; Growth and Productivity
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29126
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586800
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Charles I. Jones. The Past and Future of Economic Growth: A Semi-Endogenous Perspective. 2021.
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文件名：
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w29126.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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