| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29140 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29140 |
| The 2000s Housing Cycle With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View | |
| Gabriel Chodorow-Reich; Adam M. Guren; Timothy J. McQuade | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-08-09 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | With “2020 hindsight,” the 2000s housing cycle is not a boom-bust but rather a boom- bust-rebound at both the national level and across cities. We argue this pattern reflects a larger role for fundamentally-rooted explanations than previously thought. We construct a city-level long-run fundamental using a spatial equilibrium regression framework in which house prices are determined by local income, amenities, and supply. The fundamental predicts not only 1997-2019 price and rent growth but also the amplitude of the boom-bust-rebound and foreclosures. This evidence motivates our neo-Kindlebergerian model, in which an improvement in fundamentals triggers a boom-bust-rebound. Agents learn about the fundamentals by observing “dividends” but become over-optimistic due to diagnostic expectations. A bust ensues when over-optimistic beliefs start to correct, exacerbated by a price-foreclosure spiral that drives prices below their long-run level. The rebound follows as prices converge to a path commensurate with higher fundamental growth. The estimated model explains the boom-bust-rebound with a single fundamental shock and accounts quantitatively for cross-city patterns in the dynamics of prices and foreclosures. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Financial Economics ; Behavioral Finance ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Real Estate |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29140 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586814 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gabriel Chodorow-Reich,Adam M. Guren,Timothy J. McQuade. The 2000s Housing Cycle With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29140.pdf（2003KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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