| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29161 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29161 |
| Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century | |
| Adrien Auclert; Hannes Malmberg; Frederic Martenet; Matthew Rognlie | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-08-16 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global imbalances. Combining population forecasts with household survey data from 25 countries, we measure the compositional effect of aging: how a changing age distribution affects wealth-to-GDP, holding the age profiles of assets and labor income fixed. In a baseline overlapping generations model this statistic, in conjunction with cross-sectional information and two standard macro parameters, pins down general equilibrium outcomes. Since the compositional effect is positive, large, and heterogeneous across countries, our model predicts that population aging will increase wealth-to- GDP ratios, lower asset returns, and widen global imbalances through the twenty-first century. These conclusions extend to a richer model in which bequests, individual savings, and the tax-and-transfer system all respond to demographic change. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; International Economics ; International Factor Mobility ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29161 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586834 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Adrien Auclert,Hannes Malmberg,Frederic Martenet,et al. Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29161.pdf（674KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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