G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w29197
来源IDWorking Paper 29197
Sovereign Spreads and the Political Leaning of Nations
Ionut Cotoc; Alok Johri; César Sosa-Padilla
发表日期2021-08-30
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要Nations vary widely in how often they are governed by left-wing governments. Using data from 56 nations over 45 years, we find that the propensity of a nation to elect the left is positively correlated with both the average level and volatility of their sovereign spreads. To explain these facts, we build a quantitative sovereign default model in which two policymakers (left and right) alternate in power. Reelection probabilities are increasing in government spending, with the left having a small advantage (as found in the data). We use variation in the responsiveness of reelection probabilities to government spending in order to create economies that elect the left more or less frequently in equilibrium. We call these the left leaning and the right leaning economy. The left leaning economy faces worse borrowing terms due to higher default risk. Moreover, both policymakers have a greater reluctance for fiscal austerity and choose a higher share of government spending as compared to their counterparts in the right leaning economy. These features imply large welfare losses for households.
主题International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w29197
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586870
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GB/T 7714
Ionut Cotoc,Alok Johri,César Sosa-Padilla. Sovereign Spreads and the Political Leaning of Nations. 2021.
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