全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w29222
来源ID	Working Paper 29222
	Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle
	Bart Hobijn; Ayşegül Şahin
发表日期	2021-09-13
出版年	2021
语种	英语
摘要	We investigate the source, magnitude, and unevenness of the procyclical forces that shape labor force participation, i.e., the participation cycle, which are important for the implementation of the maximum employment mandate. We show that these forces can be analyzed in real time using a flow decomposition of the changes in the labor force participation rate. The decomposition reveals that the source of the participation cycle is fluctuations in job-loss and job-finding rates, rather than cyclical movements in labor force entry and exit rates. The magnitude of the participation cycle is large. Cyclical downward pressures on employment from participation are two-thirds that of unemployment. Moreover, the participation cycle delays the recovery in employment because it lags the unemployment cycle. It also amplifies the unevenness of the impact of recessions. Groups that see large increases in their unemployment rates also experience more pronounced participation cycles. Despite differences in their magnitudes, the source of the participation cycle is the same for all groups. Application of our method to the COVID-19 Recession suggests that, as of June 2021, the bulk of the drop in the participation rate since the onset of the pandemic is cyclical and that the cyclical recovery in participation likely will trail that of the unemployment rate.
主题	Labor Economics ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Unemployment and Immigration ; COVID-19
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w29222
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586896
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bart Hobijn,Ayşegül Şahin. Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle. 2021.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w29222.pdf（1792KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览