| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29273 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29273 |
| Memory and Probability | |
| Pedro Bordalo; John J. Conlon; Nicola Gennaioli; Spencer Yongwook Kwon; Andrei Shleifer | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-09-20 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | People often estimate probabilities, such as the likelihood that an insurable risk will materialize or that an Irish person has red hair, by retrieving experiences from memory. We present a model of this process based on two established regularities of selective recall: similarity and interference. The model accounts for and reconciles a variety of conflicting empirical findings, such as overestimation of unlikely events when these are cued vs. neglect of non-cued ones, the availability heuristic, the representativeness heuristic, as well as over vs. underreaction to information in different situations. The model makes new predictions on how the content of a hypothesis (not just its objective probability) affects probability assessments by shaping the ease of recall. We experimentally evaluate these predictions and find strong experimental support. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Experimental Design ; Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Behavioral Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29273 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586947 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pedro Bordalo,John J. Conlon,Nicola Gennaioli,et al. Memory and Probability. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29273.pdf（2307KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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