| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29293 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29293 |
| Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it \u2018Get in all of the Cracks?\u2019 | |
| Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas; Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan; Veronika Penciakova; Nick Sander | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-09-27 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the effects of fiscal policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic at the firm, sector, country and global level. First, we estimate the impact of COVID-19 and policy responses on small and medium sized enterprise (SME) business failures. We combine firm-level financial data from 50 sectors in 27 countries, a detailed I-O network, real-time data on lockdown policies and mobility patterns, and a rich model of firm behavior that allows for several dimensions of heterogeneity. We find: (a) Absent government support, the failure rate of SMEs would have increased by 9 percentage points, significantly more so in emerging market economies (EMs). With policy support it only increased by 4.3 percentage points, and even decreased in advanced economies (AEs). (b) Fiscal policy was poorly targeted: most of the funds disbursed went to firms who did not need it. (c) Nevertheless, we find little evidence of the policy merely postponing mass business failures or creating many ‘zombie’ firms: failure rates rise only slightly in 2021 once policy support is removed. Next, we build a tractable global intertemporal general equilibrium I-O model with fiscal policy. We calibrate the model to 64 countries and 36 sectors. We find that: (d) a sizable share of the global economy is demand-constrained under COVID-19, especially so in EMs. (e) Globally, fiscal policy helped offset about 8% of the downturn in COVID, with a low ‘traditional’ fiscal multiplier. Yet it significantly reduced the share of demand- constrained sectors, preserving employment in these sectors. (f) Fiscal policy exerted small and negative spillovers to output in other countries but positive spillovers on employment. (g) A two-speed recovery would put significant upwards pressure on global interest rates which imposes an additional headwind on the EM recovery. (h) Corporate and sovereign spreads rise when global rates increase, suggesting that EM may face challenging external funding conditions as AEs economies normalize. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Mathematical Tools ; Households and Firms ; Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics ; Financial Economics ; Corporate Finance ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29293 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586967 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan,Veronika Penciakova,et al. Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it \u2018Get in all of the Cracks?\u2019. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29293.pdf（584KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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