| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29300 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29300 |
| The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession Across OECD Countries | |
| David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-09-27 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries based on two successive quarters of negative GDP growth recession. For most OECD countries this establishes the start of recession in Q22008 or Q32008. We find that the Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in other OECD countries it identifies the start in almost every case, after that identified by GDP. But the GDP and labor market data are subject to major revisions, so the turn is not apparent in most countries for some time. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. It involves looking for a ten-point rise in the series compared to its previous twelve month low. These surveys are timely and have the major advantage they are not subject to revision. Across the OECD we confirm this finding with other types of qualitative data and especially so in the UK. Qualitative surveys, we show, in the US in 2006 and 2007 predicted the subsequent recession and they did the same in Europe at the end of 2007 and in the early part of 2008. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Labor Economics ; Unemployment and Immigration |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29300 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586974 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David G. Blanchflower,Alex Bryson. The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession Across OECD Countries. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29300.pdf（575KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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