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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w29304
来源IDWorking Paper 29304
Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries
Martin Beraja; Christian K. Wolf
发表日期2021-09-27
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要We argue that recoveries from demand-driven recessions with expenditure cuts concentrated in services or non-durables will tend to be weaker than recoveries from recessions more biased towards durables. Intuitively, the smaller the bias towards more durable goods, the less the recovery is buffeted by pent-up demand. We show that, in a standard multi-sector business-cycle model, this prediction holds if and only if, following an aggregate demand shock to all categories of spending (e.g., a monetary shock), expenditure on more durable goods reverts back faster. This testable condition receives ample support in U.S. data. We then use (i) a semi-structural shift-share and (ii) a structural model to quantify this effect of varying demand composition on recovery dynamics, and find it to be large. We also discuss implications for optimal stabilization policy.
主题Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w29304
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586978
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Martin Beraja,Christian K. Wolf. Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries. 2021.
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