| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29304 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29304 |
| Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries | |
| Martin Beraja; Christian K. Wolf | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-09-27 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We argue that recoveries from demand-driven recessions with expenditure cuts concentrated in services or non-durables will tend to be weaker than recoveries from recessions more biased towards durables. Intuitively, the smaller the bias towards more durable goods, the less the recovery is buffeted by pent-up demand. We show that, in a standard multi-sector business-cycle model, this prediction holds if and only if, following an aggregate demand shock to all categories of spending (e.g., a monetary shock), expenditure on more durable goods reverts back faster. This testable condition receives ample support in U.S. data. We then use (i) a semi-structural shift-share and (ii) a structural model to quantify this effect of varying demand composition on recovery dynamics, and find it to be large. We also discuss implications for optimal stabilization policy. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29304 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586978 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Martin Beraja,Christian K. Wolf. Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29304.pdf（1003KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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