| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29323 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29323 |
| Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World | |
| Kristin Forbes; Joseph Gagnon; Christopher G. Collins | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-10-04 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper finds strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is “low”—which our baseline model defines as less than 3 percent. The nonlinear curve is steep when output is above potential (slack is negative), but flat when output is below potential (slack is positive), so that further increases in economic slack have little effect on inflation. This finding is consistent with evidence of downward nominal wage and price rigidity. When inflation is high, the Phillips curve is linear and relatively steep. These results are robust to placing the threshold between the high and low inflation regimes at 2, 3, or 4 percent inflation or for a threshold based on country-specific medians of inflation. In this nonlinear model, international factors play a large role in explaining headline inflation (albeit less so for core inflation), a role that has been increasing since the global financial crisis. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy ; International Economics ; Globalization and International Relations |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29323 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586997 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kristin Forbes,Joseph Gagnon,Christopher G. Collins. Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29323.pdf（681KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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