| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29344 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29344 |
| Business News and Business Cycles | |
| Leland Bybee; Bryan T. Kelly; Asaf Manela; Dacheng Xiu | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-10-11 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose an approach to measuring the state of the economy via textual analysis of business news. From the full text of 800,000 Wall Street Journal articles for 1984–2017, we estimate a topic model that summarizes business news into interpretable topical themes and quantifies the proportion of news attention allocated to each theme over time. News attention closely tracks a wide range of economic activities and explains 25% of aggregate stock market returns. A text-augmented VAR demonstrates the large incremental role of news text in modeling macroeconomic dynamics. We use this model to retrieve the narratives that underlie business cycle fluctuations. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Financial Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29344 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587018 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Leland Bybee,Bryan T. Kelly,Asaf Manela,et al. Business News and Business Cycles. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29344.pdf（2461KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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