| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29345 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29345 |
| From Just in Time, to Just in Case, to Just in Worst-Case: Simple models of a Global Supply Chain under Uncertain Aggregate Shocks. | |
| Bomin Jiang; Daniel E. Rigobon; Roberto Rigobon | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-10-11 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Covid-19 highlighted the weaknesses in the supply chain. Many have argued that a more resilient or robust supply chain is needed. But what does a robust supply chain mean? And how do firms’ decisions change when taken that approach? This paper studies a very stylized model of a supply chain, where we study how the decision of a multinational corporation changes in the presence of uncertainty. The two standard theories of supply chain are Just-in-time and Just-in-case. Just-in-time argues in favor of pursuing efficiency, while Just-in-case studies how such decision changes when the firm faces idiosyncratic risk. We find that a robust supply chain is very different specially in the presence of systemic shocks. In this case, firms need to concentrate on the worst-case. This strategy implies a supply chain where the allocation of resources and capabilities does not correspond to the standard theories studied in economics, but follow a heuristic behavioral rule called “probability matching”. It has been found in nature and in experimental research that subjects appeal to probability matching when seeking survival. We find that a robust supply chain will reproduce this behavioral outcome. In fact, a multinational optimizing under uncertainty, follows a probability matching which leads to an allocation that is suboptimal from the individual producer point of view, but rules out the possibility of supply disruptions. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; International Economics ; Trade ; Industrial Organization ; Market Structure and Firm Performance ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29345 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587019 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bomin Jiang,Daniel E. Rigobon,Roberto Rigobon. From Just in Time, to Just in Case, to Just in Worst-Case: Simple models of a Global Supply Chain under Uncertain Aggregate Shocks.. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29345.pdf（772KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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