| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w29349
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 29349
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| Illuminating the Effects of the US-China Tariff War on China's Economy |
| Davin Chor; Bingjing Li
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| 发表日期 | 2021-10-11
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| 出版年 | 2021
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | How much has the US-China tariff war impacted economic outcomes in China? We address this question using high-frequency night lights data, together with measures of the trade exposure of fine grid locations constructed from Chinese firms' geo-coordinates. Exploiting within-grid variation over time and controlling extensively for grid-specific contemporaneous trends, we find that each 1 percentage point increase in exposure to the US tariffs was associated with a 0.59% reduction in night-time luminosity. We combine these with structural elasticities that relate night lights to economic outcomes, motivated by the statistical framework of Henderson et al. (2012). The negative impact of the tariff war was highly skewed across locations: While grids with negligible direct exposure to the US tariffs accounted for up to 70% of China's population, we infer that the 2.5% of the population in grids with the largest US tariff shocks saw a 2.52% (1.62%) decrease in income per capita (manufacturing employment) relative to unaffected grids. By contrast, we do not find significant effects from China's retaliatory tariffs. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; International Economics
; Trade
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29349
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587023
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Davin Chor,Bingjing Li. Illuminating the Effects of the US-China Tariff War on China's Economy. 2021.
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文件名：
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w29349.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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