| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29351 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29351 |
| What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt\/Output Ratio? The Dogs that Didn't Bark | |
| Zhengyang Jiang; Hanno Lustig; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh; Mindy Z. Xiaolan | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-10-11 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Higher U.S. government debt/output ratios do not forecast higher future surpluses or lower real returns on Treasurys. Neither future cash flows nor discount rates account for the variation in the current debt/output ratio. The market valuation of Treasurys is surprisingly insensitive to the macro fundamentals. Instead, the future debt/output ratio accounts for most of the variation. Systematic surplus forecast errors may help to account for these findings. Since the start of the GFC, surplus projections have anticipated a large fiscal correction that failed to materialize. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29351 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587025 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhengyang Jiang,Hanno Lustig,Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh,et al. What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt\/Output Ratio? The Dogs that Didn't Bark. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29351.pdf（569KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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