全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Which Beliefs? Behavior-Predictive Beliefs are Inconsistent with Information-Based Beliefs: Evidence from COVID-19

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w29452
来源ID	Working Paper 29452
	Which Beliefs? Behavior-Predictive Beliefs are Inconsistent with Information-Based Beliefs: Evidence from COVID-19
	Ori Heffetz; Guy Ishai
发表日期	2021-11-08
出版年	2021
语种	英语
摘要	We investigate the relationship between (a) official information on COVID-19 infection and death case counts; (b) beliefs about such case counts, at present and in the future; (c) beliefs about average infection chance—in principle, directly calculable from (b); and (d) self-reported health-protective behavior. We elicit (b), (c), and (d) with a daily online survey in the US from March to August 2020 (N ≈ 13,900). We have three main findings: (1) beliefs elicited as infection case counts are closely related to present and future official case-count information; however (2) beliefs elicited as risk perceptions—i.e., the chance to get infected—are inconsistent with those case-count beliefs, even when mathematically, they should be identical; notably, (3) it is the latter—the risk perceptions—that are significantly better predictors of reported behavior than the former. Together, these findings suggest that researchers and policymakers, who increasingly engage in direct elicitation and communication of numeric measures of uncertainty, may get very different outcomes, depending on which measures they use. We discuss potential implications for public communication of health-risk information.
主题	Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Behavioral Economics ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w29452
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587126
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ori Heffetz,Guy Ishai. Which Beliefs? Behavior-Predictive Beliefs are Inconsistent with Information-Based Beliefs: Evidence from COVID-19. 2021.

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w29452.pdf（993KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览