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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w29585
来源IDWorking Paper 29585
The Rise, Fall and Stabilization of U.S. Inflation: Shifting Regimes and Evolving Reputation
Robert G. King; Yang K. Lu
发表日期2021-12-20
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要The rise, fall, and stabilization of US inflation between 1969 and 2005 is consistent with a model of shifting policy regimes that features a forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve, policymakers that can or cannot commit, and private sector learning about policymaker type. Using model-implied inflation forecasting rules to extract state variables from the inflation forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we provide evidence that policy regimes without commitment prevailed before 1980 and regimes with commitment prevailed afterward. With theory and quantification, we find that evolution of reputational capital is central to understanding the behavior of inflation.
主题Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w29585
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587259
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Robert G. King,Yang K. Lu. The Rise, Fall and Stabilization of U.S. Inflation: Shifting Regimes and Evolving Reputation. 2021.
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