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来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | 10.3386/w29667 |
来源ID | Working Paper 29667 |
Political Constraints and Sovereign Default | |
Marina Azzimonti; Nirvana Mitra | |
发表日期 | 2022-01-17 |
出版年 | 2022 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | We study how political constraints, characterized by the degree of flexibility to choose fiscal policy, affect the probability of sovereign default. To that end, we relax the assumption that policymakers always repay their debt in the dynamic model of fiscal policy developed by Battaglini and Coate (2008). In our setup, legislators bargain over taxes, general spending, debt repayment, and a local public good that can be targeted to the region they represent. Under tighter political constraints, more legislators have veto power, implying that local public goods need to be provided to a larger number of regions. The resources that are freed after a default have to be shared with a higher number of individuals, which reduces the benefits from defaulting in per-capita terms. This lowers the incentive to default compared to the case with lax political constraints. The model is calibrated to Argentina and the results conform to robust empirical evidence. An event study for the 2001/2002 sovereign debt crisis shows that political constraints had an important role in the buildup that led to the crisis. |
主题 | Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics ; Public Economics ; Taxation ; Public Goods ; National Fiscal Issues |
URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29667 |
来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587341 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marina Azzimonti,Nirvana Mitra. Political Constraints and Sovereign Default. 2022. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
w29667.pdf(834KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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