| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29711 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29711 |
| Expectations Formation and Forward Information | |
| Nathan Goldstein; Yuriy Gorodnichenko | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-01-31 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose a model where forecasters have access to noisy signals about the future (forward information). In this setting, information varies not only across agents but also across horizons. As a result, the estimated persistence of forecasts deviates from the persistence of fundamentals and the ability of forecasts at shorter horizons to explain forecasts at longer horizons is limited. These properties tend to diminish as the forecast horizon increases. We document that this novel pattern is consistent with survey data for professional forecasters. We provide further evidence that time-series and cross-sectional variation in professional forecasts are driven by forward information. We propose a simple method for extracting the forward information component from a survey and provide several applications of forward information. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Data Collection ; Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29711 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587385 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nathan Goldstein,Yuriy Gorodnichenko. Expectations Formation and Forward Information. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29711.pdf（846KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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