| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29714 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29714 |
| State-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty | |
| Scott R. Baker; Steven J. Davis; Jeffrey A. Levy | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-02-07 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3,500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (EPU-S), one that captures national and international sources (EPU-N), and a composite index that captures both. EPU-S rises around gubernatorial elections and own-state episodes like the California electricity crisis of 2000-01 and the Kansas tax experiment of 2012. EPU-N rises around presidential elections and in response to 9-11, Gulf Wars I and II, the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis, the 2012 fiscal cliff episode, and federal government shutdowns. Close elections elevate policy uncertainty much more than the average election. VAR models fit to pre-COVID data imply that upward shocks to own-state EPU foreshadow weaker economic performance in the state, as do upward EPU shocks in contiguous states. The COVID-19 pandemic drove huge increases in policy uncertainty and unemployment, more so in states with stricter government-mandated lockdowns. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets ; Public Economics ; Subnational Fiscal Issues ; Regional and Urban Economics ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29714 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587388 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Scott R. Baker,Steven J. Davis,Jeffrey A. Levy. State-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29714.pdf（1558KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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