| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29785 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29785 |
| The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times | |
| Richard K. Crump; Stefano Eusepi; Marc Giannoni; Ayşegül Şahin | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-02-21 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We estimate the natural rate of unemployment, often referred to as u*, in the United States using data on labor market flows, short-term and long-term inflation expectations and a forward-looking New-Keynesian Phillips curve for the 1960-2021 period. The natural rate of unemployment was at around 4.5% before the onset of the pandemic and increased to 5.9% by the end of 2021. This pronounced rise was primarily informed by strong wage growth rather than changes in inflation expectations. Despite the rise in the natural rate of unemployment, the secular trend of unemployment continued to fall and stands at around 4.2% reflecting ongoing secular developments which have been pushing down the unemployment rate over the last 30 years. Our model forecasts strong wage growth to moderate only sluggishly continuing to put upward pressure on inflation in the medium-run. We project underlying inflation to remain 0.5 percentage points above its long-run trend by the end of 2023 even if long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored. Given the importance of wage growth for the inflation outlook, we examine detailed micro data on job-filling rates, posted wages for vacant positions, and workers' reservation wages. In particular, we construct a composition-bias free measure of wage growth at the employer-job level using Burning Glass Technologies data and document strong wage growth for both teleworkable and non-teleworkable jobs. Moreover, we find that workers' reservation wages increased substantially after the pandemic. Our empirical analysis suggests that the strong wage growth is likely not a one-time adjustment of additional compensation for jobs that pose health risks to workers but rather reflects a tight labor market accompanied with a changing work-leisure trade-off. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Labor Compensation ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29785 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587459 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Richard K. Crump,Stefano Eusepi,Marc Giannoni,et al. The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29785.pdf（1114KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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