| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29786 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29786 |
| Seeing the Future: A Better Way to Model and Test for Adaptive Developmental Plasticity | |
| Anup Malani; Stacy Rosenbaum; Susan C. Alberts; Elizabeth A. Archie | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-02-28 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Early life conditions can have profound effects on individual health, longevity, and biological fitness. Two classes of hypotheses are used to explain the evolutionary origins of these effects: developmental constraints (DC) hypotheses, which focus on the deleterious effects of low-quality early-life environments, and predictive adaptive response (PAR) models, which focus on organisms’ predictions about their adult environment, phenotypic adaptations based on that prediction, and the deleterious consequences of incorrect predictions. Despite their popularity, these ideas remain poorly defined. To remedy this, we provide mathematical definitions for DC, PARs, and related concepts, and develop statistical tests derived from these definitions. We use simulations to demonstrate that PARs are more readily detected by tests based on quadratic regressions than by tests based on more commonly used interaction regression models. We demonstrate that the poor performance of interaction models stems from two problems: first, they are mathematically incapable of detecting a central prediction of PAR, and second, they conceptually conflate PARs with DC. We conclude by providing recommendations for how researchers can make use of explicit definitions and properly-aligned visualizations and statistical tests to make progress in this important research area. |
| 主题 | Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29786 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587460 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Anup Malani,Stacy Rosenbaum,Susan C. Alberts,et al. Seeing the Future: A Better Way to Model and Test for Adaptive Developmental Plasticity. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29786.pdf（527KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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