| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29806 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29806 |
| The Wobbly Economy: Global Dynamics with Phase and State Transitions | |
| Tomohiro Hirano; Joseph E. Stiglitz | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-02-28 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyze global dynamics in the standard life-cycle model with production, showing that there can be a plethora of rational expectations dynamics, including “wobbly macro-dynamics”. Depending on people’s beliefs, the macroeconomy can bounce around infinitely, without converging, without regular periodicity. The economy can be plagued by repeated periods of inefficiencies and unemployment. In phase transitions, the economy endogenously changes from a state with a unique momentary equilibrium into one with multiple equilibria, or vice versa. Phase transitions determine the patterns of dynamics. We identify all possible patterns of dynamics, providing a complete characterization of the parameter values under which each may occur, showing how a change in some key parameter (e.g. labor productivity) induces a “state transition,” an abrupt change in the set of feasible global dynamics: a boom can become unstable. Global dynamics exhibits strong hysteresis effects; a temporary positive productivity shock can have long run adverse effects. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Mathematical Tools ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Development and Growth ; Development |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29806 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587480 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tomohiro Hirano,Joseph E. Stiglitz. The Wobbly Economy: Global Dynamics with Phase and State Transitions. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29806.pdf（2322KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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