| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29910 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29910 |
| A labor market view on the risks of a U.S. hard landing | |
| Alex Domash; Lawrence H. Summers | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-04-04 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper uses historical labor market data to assess the plausibility that the Federal Reserve can engineer a soft landing for the economy. We first show that the labor market today is significantly tighter than implied by the unemployment rate: the vacancy and quit rates currently experienced in the United States correspond to a degree of labor market tightness previously associated with sub-2 percent unemployment rates. We highlight that the super-tight labor market coincides with current wage inflation of 6.5 percent – the highest level experienced in the past 40 years – and that firm-side slack measures predict further increases in wage inflation over the coming year. Finally, we show that high levels of wage inflation have historically been associated with a substantial risk of a recession over the next one to two years. We argue that periods that historically have been hailed as successful soft landings have little in common with the present moment. Our results suggest a very low likelihood that the Federal Reserve can reduce inflation without causing a significant slowdown in economic activity. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Labor Compensation |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29910 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587582 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alex Domash,Lawrence H. Summers. A labor market view on the risks of a U.S. hard landing. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29910.pdf（343KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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