| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29934 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29934 |
| Optimal Exploration and Price Paths of a Non-renewable Commodity with Stochastic Discoveries | |
| Ivar Ekeland; Wolfram Schlenker; Peter Tankov; Brian Wright | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-04-11 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We address the long-standing challenge of adding optimal exploration to the classic Hotelling model of a non-renewable resource. We completely solve such a model, using impulse control. The model, extending Arrow and Chang (1982), has two state variables: “proven” reserves and a finite unexplored area available for exploration at constant marginal cost, with a Poisson process for new discoveries. We prove that a frontier of critical levels of proven reserves exists, above which exploration ceases, and below which it happens at infinite speed. This frontier is increasing in explored area, and higher reserve levels along this critical threshold indicate more scarcity, not less. In a stochastic generalization of Hotelling’s rule, the expected shadow price of reserves rises at the rate of interest across exploratory episodes. The trajectories of prices realized prior to exhaustion of the exploratory area may jump up or down upon exploration. Conditional on non-exhaustion, expected price rises at a rate bounded above by the rate of interest, explaining why most empirical tests based on past price histories reject Hotelling’s rule. Starting when the unexplored area is sufficiently close to zero, all price paths rise at less than the rate of interest until exhaustion of the unexplored area. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Mathematical Tools ; Environmental and Resource Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29934 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587607 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ivar Ekeland,Wolfram Schlenker,Peter Tankov,et al. Optimal Exploration and Price Paths of a Non-renewable Commodity with Stochastic Discoveries. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29934.pdf（1582KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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