| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29902 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29902 |
| Measuring U.S. Fiscal Capacity using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis | |
| Zhengyang Jiang; Hanno Lustig; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh; Mindy Z. Xiaolan | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-04-18 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use discounted cash flow analysis to measure a country's fiscal capacity. Crucially, the discount rate applied to projected cash flows includes a GDP risk premium. We apply our valuation method to the CBO's projections for the U.S. federal government's deficit between 2022 and 2051 and debt in 2051. In spite of low rates, our current measure of U.S. fiscal capacity is lower than the debt/GDP ratio. Because of the backloading of projected surpluses, the duration of the surplus claim far exceeds the duration of the outstanding Treasury portfolio. This duration mismatch exposes the government to the risk of rising rates, which would trigger the need for higher tax revenue or lower spending. Reducing this risk by front-loading the surpluses also requires major fiscal adjustment. |
| 主题 | Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29902 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587608 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhengyang Jiang,Hanno Lustig,Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh,et al. Measuring U.S. Fiscal Capacity using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29902.pdf（575KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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