G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w29902
来源IDWorking Paper 29902
Measuring U.S. Fiscal Capacity using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Zhengyang Jiang; Hanno Lustig; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh; Mindy Z. Xiaolan
发表日期2022-04-18
出版年2022
语种英语
摘要We use discounted cash flow analysis to measure a country's fiscal capacity. Crucially, the discount rate applied to projected cash flows includes a GDP risk premium. We apply our valuation method to the CBO's projections for the U.S. federal government's deficit between 2022 and 2051 and debt in 2051. In spite of low rates, our current measure of U.S. fiscal capacity is lower than the debt/GDP ratio. Because of the backloading of projected surpluses, the duration of the surplus claim far exceeds the duration of the outstanding Treasury portfolio. This duration mismatch exposes the government to the risk of rising rates, which would trigger the need for higher tax revenue or lower spending. Reducing this risk by front-loading the surpluses also requires major fiscal adjustment.
主题Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w29902
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587608
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zhengyang Jiang,Hanno Lustig,Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh,et al. Measuring U.S. Fiscal Capacity using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. 2022.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
w29902.pdf(575KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Zhengyang Jiang]的文章
[Hanno Lustig]的文章
[Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Zhengyang Jiang]的文章
[Hanno Lustig]的文章
[Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Zhengyang Jiang]的文章
[Hanno Lustig]的文章
[Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: w29902.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。